“When you look at this very painful Kodak moment today, you’re seeing something that’s deeply symbolic. You’re seeing either a potential for further downsizing of Kodak or at the worst – a liquidation,” – Joel Seligman, President of University of Rochester and Kodak board member
There are now serious questions about whether the company can successfully emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
George Conboy of Brighton Securities puts the odds at 60-40 Kodak will survive.
“Unless we see profitability, no judge is going to let them emerge from bankruptcy,” Conboy said. “Early on, it still seems to be difficult for them, despite an economy that seems to be improving.”
Kodak CEO Antonio Perez has said the company hopes to exit bankruptcy in January.
“Why am I believing we exit bankruptcy in January? Our firm believes they exit bankruptcy at least in June 2013,” Conboy said. “Their chief cheerleader never seems to deliver the goods.”
Perez has repeatedly said Kodak is on the path to becoming a “profitable and sustainable” digital company.
Conboy said if Kodak doesn’t stabilize by the middle of July, the company may be headed for Chapter 7.
That’s a liquidation of the business. That’s bye-bye Kodak. That’s turning the headquarters on State St. into condos. That’s possibly a state takeover of Eastman Business Park.
That’s something we don’t want to think about. But it’s not too early to start.
Update: Kodak’s spokesman pointed out the monthly reports provide a limited snapshot and did not include international businesses. “While at times it may seem much longer, remember that it’s not even been three months since we filed for Chapter 11. A reorganization takes some time. While there is much more to do, we have made good progress – bolstering liquidity, rebuilding relationships with suppliers, shoring up our supply chain, focusing on core businesses and, most importantly, reaffirming support with our customers,” Christopher Veronda said in an email, adding the company’s reorganization plan is due in January 2013 and that doesn’t mean the bankruptcy will end then.