You can never be too safe…or can you?
On Sunday, I read the forecast of Hurricane Sandy’s impact on Western New York. It said there’s potential for flooding along the lakeshore, isolated flooding elsewhere and maximum winds of 65 miles per hour that could cause power outages. The detailed forecast did not call for widespread problems.
I posted on Facebook this was not a “run to Wegmans” kind of store, yet people were already stocking up on generators, flashlights, bread and bottled water. Did anyone say there was a strong likelihood grocery stores would be closed, roads would be impassable or the municipal water supply could fail? (I realize those with well water are in a different boat.)
Sunday night, Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks held a press conference about Sandy preparations and referenced the 1991 ice storm. That horrible event knocked out power for days to 300,000 customers. Brooks said she didn’t want to scare anyone, but the county was getting ready for Sandy “as a precaution.”
Monday morning, the county declared a state of emergency “as a precaution.” The emergency operations center, staffed by dozens of people from 18 agencies, came to life. They gathered sandbags only a couple of towns requested. They set up shelters only a few people used. They opened a bridge a few days early. They robocalled thousands of lakeshore residents to warn them of potential flooding “as a precaution.”
By 4 p.m., they’d gotten every school district in the county to cancel classes the next day “as a precaution.” Superintendents used to set their alarms for 3 a.m. to survey the landscape before making a decision to call off school. Kids used to go to bed praying for a snow day. Now they get one “as a precaution.”
Meanwhile, on the 6 p.m. news, meteorologists said this storm was “manageable,” “doable” and “nothing we can’t handle.”
Despite no change in the forecast, a final “precaution” came at 8 p.m. Monday when the county declared an evacuation for 2,200 lakefront residents. The storm had arrived hours earlier. It was dark and rainy and windy. No one had a lick of water lapping at their doorsteps. In addition to robocalls, police officers went door to door warning residents to get out. They didn’t make it to one street in Hilton until after midnight. One man said he nodded his head and went back to bed.
This was certainly not an insignificant storm locally, as more than 20,000 homes and business lost power. (About half have already been restored.) For people who had property damage or lost beloved trees, this was a horrible day. But this wasn’t a community-wide experience. I went my entire day without encountering a road closure or broken traffic light. There were school districts that absolutely could have opened.
Tuesday morning, we heard a lot of talk about how Monroe County “dodged a bullet.” The bullet was never heading our way. Our forecasters predicted exactly what transpired.
So why did the county – and the rest of us – panic?
I think the news coverage of Sandy’s anticipated impact and resulting devastation may have clouded judgment. I think the emergency personnel in the ops center who’d spent the day waiting got scared as the storm hit downstate. There may have been some “groupthink.” As for Brooks’ leadership, I do not share the cynical view she was boosting her campaign or looking for TV facetime. She was trying to do what she thought was right and no politician wants to be blamed for not doing enough. She wasn’t the only Upstate leader to take some of these precautions.
The larger issue is we live in a very risk-averse society where it’s better to take every “precaution,” even when it’s not necessary. Tomorrow night, police officers will check up on sex offenders, when there’s no evidence children are more at risk on Halloween. State lawmakers are imposing ever-increasing penalties against drunk drivers, even though they don’t work on those who kill. Communities are passing laws against cyberbullying, which is far less common than face-to-face bullying. Parents don’t let their children walk to school alone, even though the odds they’ll be kidnapped and murdered are statistically zero. Kids aren’t allowed to do cartwheels at recess because they could get hurt. There’s an endless parade of recalled products, while real risks to children go ignored.
We often try to control the uncontrollable. We often let fear something could happen run our lives. But there’s reasonably reducing risk and there’s wasting time. This exercise cost families a night’s sleep, many children a day of school and money for personnel. I’m glad our county demonstrated it is prepared for a big emergency. Let’s do this again when there is one.
Links of the Day, Sandy Edition:
My thoughts are with the people of New York City, who will experience hardship for days or weeks to come. It’s painful to see such a mighty and important city struggling with such a disaster.
- The people killed by Hurricane Sandy were victims of sad chance. One woman was burned alive as her neighbors watched.
- Have you noticed in a disaster, cell phones hold up better than electricity?
- “Lady Liberty’s head didn’t come rolling down the street.” Why didn’t Hollywood predict Sandy?
- Plenty of other people predicted Sandy’s devastating impact on New York’s infrastructure.
- We can’t stop watching disaster porn.
- “Rats are incredibly good swimmers.” New York’s subways may be rid of rats, but they likely went elsewhere in the city.
In stark contrast, NYC Mayor Bloomberg dithered about evacuation until 7 hours before the transit was to shut down. Then he evaced zone A. There was zone B flooding, and lots of people never left zone A.
New York City has been warned for decades about the risks from this type of storm. There have always been other priorities, just like in New Orleans. In a perfect world, everything would be funded.
Maggie Brooks is running for office and she needed to show herself as good in an emergency. People will like the schools closed for a day but voters along the seashore will be resentful of the mandatory evacuation. But still I worried about power outages and wanted items from Wegmans just in case. Is it bad to prepare?
At the heart of this piece is the question – to paraphrase: “Why did we panic?”
Yet, nothing you describe sounds very much like ‘panic’ to me.
What would be your take, had there been an actual emergency here and had the reported precautions not taken place?
Sounds a bit like one of those damned if you do, damned if you don’t stories.
If there was an actual emergency, I would expect the county to act accordingly. Key word being actual.
Lynn, nothing wrong with stocking up.
Talk about shutting the barn door once the horse is out…
Had this been a true emergency on the lake front… fail!
Had there been more rain, higher wind, higher waves, by the time the evacuation was declared it would have been too late to be in anyway effective. Can anyone envision a small scale Katrina? No use sending buses once the roads flood.
Damned if we do, damned if we don’t.
If we prepare extensively and things go wrong: “OH MY GOD WHY DIDN’T YOU PREPARE”
If we prepare extensively and nothing happens: “OH MY GOD WHY DID YOU BOTHER TO PREPARE”
This is the mentality of the general public.
This article is insulting to myself and no doubt, the other volunteers that work to prepare in an emergency. I was wondering how long it would take for the local media to post a moronic article such as this one. The government is damned if it does, and damned if it doesn’t. What exactly are you trying to prove here? That we should’ve been less prepared? That we should’ve taken all of the data less seriously? That all of the volunteers should’ve stayed home in bed? The county did *exactly* what it should’ve done: It *pre*pared.
There seems to be a pervasive misconception that activating emergency logistics of this scale is a simple feat–an action that one can perform by snapping their fingers. It isn’t. By the time the apex is upon you, it’s too late to mobilize. Maggie Brooks, the county, and all of the volunteers performed their duties admirably: They prepared for the worst. The EOC was activated, the Red Cross opened shelters, and the Monroe County Emergency Communications group was activated. We were ready. And I’m not sure if you’ve been checking the news, but just because not every single location was walloped doesn’t mean that this was hype.
And what if worse had happened? What if Maggie had not activated the EOC, ARES/RACES did not bother to respond, the Red Cross decided to give you the middle finger, and far worse occurred? What then? Why, then, you’d be up in arms at the ill-preparedness of the local government.
Damned if we do, and damned if we don’t. This is an ill-informed and offensive piece of reporting. I am thoroughly disappointed in you. Why don’t you give myself or Maggie or the EOC or ARES/RACES a call and I can discuss with you exactly the level of logistics that go into this sort of activity, and the genuine importance of mobilizing them early. I do believe, that is the concept of *PRE*paring.
Who was predicting a catastrophe of any magnitude? What was the worst that could have happened? Nowhere did anyone say the worst would be a widespread incident. Nowhere.
Using your arguments, we could call a state of emergency for almost any bad weather situation, including snowstorms. These warnings and watches are relatively common.
I have the upmost respect for emergency responders. I’m not sure how this is a knock on them.
I suggest you contact Maggie Brooks or another governmental or volunteer representative to discuss why the state of emergency was declared, and all of the other precautions were taken. You article is arguably one-sided: It contains no quotes from anyone who was actually handling the situation.
Vincent I was there covering her press conferences all day Monday.
Good points Vincent!
Um, the ENTIRE region was under emergency. The City was too. Why’s nobody ? ing them?
We need leadership. All of which Maggie has shown.
Follow the leader Tommy boy.
Any insinuation this was political is a slap in the face to first resppnders, voters and leaders like Maggie who just want to help.
I think a lot of it had to do with what was going on downstate. The other risk was if Sandy didn’t lose as much power as she did, she would have given us a good beating.
I also imagine since Obama put NY under a state of emergency, Monroe County/City of Rochester had a chance to let the feds foot the bill for this. Better that we activate the EOC and get a practice run(and be prepared in the event Sandy gave us a hard hit) in before we have something that will very likely cause a disaster. These operations across jurisdictional lines and multi-disciplinary aren’t easy. Good to keep the muscles loose.
Monroe County government sucks 24/7. Like a fish long past its sell-by date, it stinks from the head down. But like said fish, potential buyers (voters) don’t really notice, as long as it’s nicely packaged by the local fishwrapper and sold with a smile. Wouldn’t expect storm handling to be any better.
NEXT QUESTION.
Rachel,
Thanks for publishing this. I’m most interested in the decision criteria the school superintendents used to cancel schools. Can the County Executive order schools closed? And if so, to do so based on a forecast that calls for a moderate storm like we had is very questionable. I understand her logic in getting the county prepared, if she fails to her opponent would be all over it, too much risk there. But again, stick to the basics like clearing county roads, keep your nose away from the schools.
To me the local media and county government’s reaction to the forecast is inline with the trend of unsubstantiated fears, taking less responsibility for your own well being, and people’s desire for bigger government. Yes, the county and RGE should be prepared to clear the roads and keep power lines safe, but people need to rely on their own common sense and their family, friends and neighbors if/when a true threat is present.
Also the mandatory evacuations – eh – it’s private property. Thanks to Channel 13 for interviewing level headed people yesterday and especially Don Alhart’s comment supporting the sound mindset of many lakeshore residents.
Brian
Maggie Brooks reminded me that she is stupid. The county declared a state of emergency???? Ok and then the dumbest thing of all was how there was a mandatory evacuation for those on the coast of Lake Ontario during the Storm??? where is the sanity in this decision? Rachel Thank you for this article. The stupidest thing was that they cancelled all the schools including MCC which is where I go. What a joke tuesday was a normal day.
The lake was predicted to have 20 foot waves and a surge with the lake level very low.
What does that mean? How far will the water come up on shore, will it reach to the homes? Who really knew? No one!
There are way too many variables to know for sure what could or would happen. There are lots of homes at waters edge on the shore, feet from the water, and there are some on the shore 200ft above the water and never at risk. EVER.
If this had happened in spring with high water levels and 10 ft waves with a surge, homes would have been hit no doubt.
All that said if your going to ask them to leave, better to do it early rather than later or during the storm. Give them the warning, and let them decide before the storm Then taking the risk is clearly the lake shore homeowners responsibility as it should be.
Generally speaking, I don’t like the concept of mandatory anything on the government level. Evacuations are no different. I’m ok with the premise if all that it means is “if you don’t leave, you’re on your own.”
The timing of the evacuation order was questionable, in that I don’t think it’s incredibly safe for large amounts of people to be rushing around in the dark, under the impression of being forced to.
That all said, I would question, Rachel, your faith in meteorology
As an avid user of the Great Lakes for kayak fishing, etc, I can tell you for a fact that the conditions change quickly, and with a large degree of randomness.
I don’t blame the meteorologists. They are doing their best based on predictive modeling and historical data. But, it’s nature.
Maybe in the future we need to make it clear that in specific weather scenarios, earthqueakes, etc, not so much that there is an evacuation order, but rather that “we are NOT risking first responders immediately after the event in these zones because the likelihood of inundation is too great”. Let the people decide from there.
The people who complain about the evacuation are the same people who will complain when they aren’t rescued from their swamped homes…better safe than sorry
I mostly agree with what you wrote, but let’s not underestimate the power of TV here. What was YNN leading with 48 times a day from Friday onward? What were the broadcast stations leading with at 5, 6 and 7 a.m. as well as noon, 5, 6 and 11 p.m.?
If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, then people assume it’s a duck. It’s a case of lather, rinse, repeat when the meteorologists crank up the Super Duper Deluxe Doppler 5000 to project the arrival of the blizzard of the decade two or three times a year … and then we get a dusting of snow instead.
One of these days people will tune out the prophecies of doom and get buried by three feet of snow.
As for me, I tune out the drama. My only concession to Sandy was to stock up on flashlight batteries (which I normally do the weekend we turn the clocks back) and to buy a quart of milk for breakfast and extra greens for our bunny in case produce shipments got delayed by a day.
Anyone know what I can do with 42 gallons of bottled water?
Oh, I’m just kidding…This is just the preparation step that mostly seems over the top. A natural disaster has to be pretty bad before it knocks out a water supply. Even in NYC and NJ, that didn’t happen.
My thoughts…I took your blog to be an assessment of your thoughts. When one sits back and looks at the situation that actually occurred, it does appear that it may have been a little excessive for the conditions. However, I believe in a little safe than sorry. ( I did stop in Wegmans to pick up a couple small things for dinner. I thought it was the weekend…the place was packed. I had a chuckle seeing all the people carrying cases of water. ) My feeling now is that the response by the government and all the first responder agencies was a good thing. It is beneficial to these agencies to put their preparations into actual use. If and when we really have an emergency, all these agencies and people will be better prepared. For this reason, I am fine with going into emergency mode.
We live in the older Stony Point neighborhood hundreds of feet above Irondequoit Bay and received a mandatory evacuation order late Monday night. Evacuate from what, into what? These orders need to take into account elevation as well as distance from the lake. I pity any elderly person who might have been scared enough to venture out into the height of the storm.