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“When you look at this very painful Kodak moment today, you’re seeing something that’s deeply symbolic. You’re seeing either a potential for further downsizing of Kodak or at the worst – a liquidation,” – Joel Seligman, President of University of Rochester and Kodak board member

That’s what Seligman said on the day Kodak filed for bankruptcy. Since then, Kodak has burned through nearly $200 million in cash. It’s got $683 million left in the bank.

There are now serious questions about whether the company can successfully emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

George Conboy of Brighton Securities puts the odds at 60-40 Kodak will survive.

“Unless we see profitability, no judge is going to let them emerge from bankruptcy,” Conboy said. “Early on, it still seems to be difficult for them, despite an economy that seems to be improving.”

Kodak CEO Antonio Perez has said the company hopes to exit bankruptcy in January.

“Why am I believing we exit bankruptcy in January? Our firm believes they exit bankruptcy at least in June 2013,” Conboy said. “Their chief cheerleader never seems to deliver the goods.”

Perez has repeatedly said Kodak is on the path to becoming a “profitable and sustainable” digital company.

Conboy said if Kodak doesn’t stabilize by the middle of July, the company may be headed for Chapter 7.

That’s a liquidation of the business. That’s bye-bye Kodak. That’s turning the headquarters on State St. into condos. That’s possibly a state takeover of Eastman Business Park.

That’s something we don’t want to think about. But it’s not too early to start.

Update: Kodak’s spokesman pointed out the monthly reports provide a limited snapshot and did not include international businesses. “While at times it may seem much longer, remember that it’s not even been three months since we filed for Chapter 11. A reorganization takes some time. While there is much more to do, we have made good progress – bolstering liquidity, rebuilding relationships with suppliers, shoring up our supply chain, focusing on core businesses and, most importantly, reaffirming support with our customers,” Christopher Veronda said in an email, adding the company’s reorganization plan is due in January 2013 and that doesn’t mean the bankruptcy will end then.

11 Responses to Can Kodak Survive?

  1. “… all good things…” Rachel. It makes me sad too, but our economy has been slowly morphing into a post-Kodak one anyway, thanks in no small part to UR. I think there best bet is to shift to strictly being a tech firm that licences its toys to other companies, which I believe is an idea that has been bandied about. It’s still especially hard for those of us who grew up walking distance for Kodak part, but we’ll get used to it.

  2. April 1, 2012 at 8:21 pm Lynn E responds:

    Until digital material is able to be stored for posterity, there will be a place for film just as there is a place for paper and pencil.

  3. kodak is doomed as long as Perez is there. If he is so confident tell him to take his pay in stock options

  4. April 1, 2012 at 9:07 pm Pat C responds:

    If they can sell their patent portfolio they will survive a bit longer. I have not heard of any business they are in that will profitable for the long term. Perhaps the State should begin negotiating for the takeover of the Business Park just as soon as Kodak has any more money, before Perez burns it up.

  5. Well said Phil!!

  6. April 1, 2012 at 9:31 pm M Mac responds:

    ESL may be the only business with Eastman name to survive.

  7. April 2, 2012 at 12:04 am Paul D responds:

    I am glad to see that Kodak is again selling CDs & DVDs their media storage products were always considered the best. Then they disappeared from the shelves.
    They are also going to be the sole provider of photos made from Facebook pictures. With the degradation of digital motion picture media files in Hollywood, Kodak has seen a major resurgence in their motion picture film products.
    Why their marketing-promotional division is not promoting these huge positives is anybody’s guess!

  8. April 2, 2012 at 10:48 am Tim Kampas responds:

    I feel like this article is a bit misleading. Kodak’s US operation lost $200 million. Overall Kodak only lost $2 million.

  9. Why is Perez still CEO???
    If you have any stake in Kodak, please call for his resignation!!!!!!!

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